Warm and humid weather blanketed the area on Wednesday. Temperatures during the afternoon climbed into the low to mid 80s with a few showers and thunderstorms bubbling up east of Hwy. 65. This activity will make a quick exit early this evening with warm and quiet conditions overnight.
Thursday will be a different matter. An active day is expected with a few waves of storms expected to sweep through the Ozarks. The first wave will move across Central and Northern Missouri during the morning into the early afternoon. It’s a little unclear how far south this round will get, but certainly as far south as Lake of the Ozarks east to Rolla will be in play. Damaging winds and hail will be possible with this wave of storms.
Further south storm chances look fairly low during the morning with temperatures climbing into the low to mid-80s by afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may try to bubble up during the heat of the day. Most of the stormy weather will come with a line or lines of strong to severe storms that will organize to the west before sweeping east and southeast through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, and the threat could be fairly widespread. Pockets of large hail are also possible with the stronger storms. The threat of tornadoes looks low, but areas, where the squall lines surge east, could be prone to producing a few brief tornadoes.
The timing for severe weather with the second wave will be focused along and north of the interstate through early evening, shifting southeast of the interstate by mid to late evening. There should be a tendency for the severe threat to diminish by late evening with strong to severe storms clearing the area by early Friday morning.
The timing of the stormy weather is a bit in question with some of the model guidance this evening indicating a squall line may take shape earlier in the day, sweeping through the area late morning through late afternoon. If this scenario plays out this would reduce the risk for severe weather Thursday evening although additional showers and thunderstorms would be possible.
The rain will exit by Friday morning with breezy northwest winds pumping in cooler and less humid air. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s with highs ranging from the 60s north to 70s south. The day as a whole looks fairly sunny to the south of Hwy. 60 with much cloudier conditions to the north.
The holiday weekend will be ideal for getting outside, and especially nice for camping. Overnight temperatures will be chilly with daytime temperatures comfortably warm. Temperatures will tend to run about 10° below normal through the weekend. Temperatures will be warmer by Sunday and Monday, but still very mild for late May.
Memorial Day will feature increased cloud cover with a possibility for showers creeping in later in the day. Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures remaining mild.