We finally began to shake free of the cold today with a warm front making inroads across the Ozarks. Temperatures and humidity levels were noticeably higher this afternoon. Clouds and showers moving in out of Kansas curbed our warm-up to some extent though with highs in the 60s north to 70s south.
The warming trend continues on Thursday. Temperatures will get a nice head start early in the day with readings in the low to mid 60s. Sunshine will be more prevalent on Thursday, but there will still be quite a bit of cloud cover at times. Like today, we’ll have a sneaky chance for showers or thunderstorms as an upper-level storm slips through toward early afternoon. This should bring a round of increased cloud cover from late morning into the afternoon with a chance for at least some spotty showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warm though, it’s just how warm and that will be dictated by how much cloud cover and shower activity the disturbance brings. Right now look for highs to be in the 75 to 80° range.
Rain chances will ramp up Thursday night from north to south. A cold front dropping in from the northwest will trigger thunderstorms across Eastern Kansas and Northern Missouri by Thursday evening. Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and possibly strong wind gusts. The tornado threat isn’t zero, but the overall set-up isn’t one that favors tornadoes. The best chance for severe weather in our area will be closer to Central Missouri through midnight. Storms will gradually sag south into Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas by Friday morning. Heavy rain is another concern, especially west of Hwy. 65 into Eastern Kansas where the rain could be excessive leading to flash flooding.
The rain will wind down Friday morning with mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures the remainder of the day. There will be a chance for showers, but it looks like the morning rain will tend to take the punch out of the atmosphere for afternoon rain.
A frontal boundary will linger in the area through Saturday. Clouds look widespread with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area yet again. A front will slip across the area Sunday morning into the afternoon bringing an end to rain chances. Rain amounts over the next three days will be in the 1 to 3″ range with locally higher amounts that may top 4″. Flooding will be a concern.
Drier weather will start to build in Sunday afternoon with an extended stretch of nice weather through the middle of next week.