Cool and quiet May weather to continue through the end of the week ahead of a warmer and stormier pattern.
For tonight, we’ll find starry skies across most of the area. There will be a few clouds lingering across Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas where upper-level moisture still lingers. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s east of Springfield and a Frost Advisory has been posted for Thursday morning.
Thursday is shaping up to be the nicest day of the week. Skies will remain mostly clear with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Winds will remain light throughout the day.
Friday will mark the transition to a more typical May pattern, one that will feature warmer temperatures and stormier weather.
Winds will become more southerly on Friday with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers may try to move into Western and Central Missouri. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s.
A warm front will push north into the area Saturday. This will help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms on and off throughout much of the day with a tendency for the highest rain chances to be north of Hwy. 60. Temperatures will be mild with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and 70s.
The front will be draped across the area Saturday night and may trigger another widespread round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon skies will tend to clear out some to the south with rain chances shifting north into Central Missouri. This will open the door to much warmer weather with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will be up too.
While a few stronger storms can’t be ruled out over the course of the weekend, no widespread severe weather is expected. Rainfall will be heaviest closer to Central Missouri where amounts of 1 to 2″ are possible. Rain amounts will tend to be under an inch to the south.
The pattern will remain active through next week with a trough positioned in the West. A steady south to southeast flow will keep temperatures warm and humidity levels up throughout the week. The pattern will also tend to prevent cold fronts from moving through the area.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day throughout the week. The risk for severe weather is tough to pin down this far out and will be more of a day-to-day assessment. Wind energy over the area doesn’t look to be very high and this will help keep the severe risk more limited. Storms may have a tendency to be driven more by instability that will build during the heat of the afternoon leading to a few marginally severe hail or wind events.