Quiet spells don’t last long in the pattern we’re in and it looks like active weather returns on Thursday. We’ll get through most of tonight with quiet conditions. Skies will become partly starry with temperatures cooling through the 50s.
There will be a risk for some dense fog over South Central Missouri and North Central Arkansas as moisture moves northeast into the area and a Dense Fog Advisory has been posted from 3 am until 10 am Thursday.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by sunrise over Western Missouri before quickly spreading east. The showers and thunderstorms will be developing ahead of a warm front that will push northeast across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. Areas closer to Central Missouri up I-44 will tend to stay cloudier with a chance for showers and thunderstorms lingering through the morning. Meanwhile, areas to the south will break out into some sunshine with warm and humid conditions developing. Temperatures by early to mid-afternoon will warm well into the 70s near and south of Hwy. 60 with highs around 80° possible in places like Branson, Harrison and Mtn. Home.
The warmth will lead to higher instability by early afternoon setting the stage for some severe weather. It looks like a few severe storms will initially get going near and north of the warm front and surface low closer to Rolla by early afternoon. Some large hail is possible with these storms. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will then fire in the unstable air further south and southwest across South Central Missouri and North Central Arkansas. These storms will quickly develop as they race east to east-southeast. As the storms strengthen they’ll begin to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. As the storms mature there will be a risk for a tornado or two. The threat for this appears to be mainly near and east of Hwy. 63 or in areas from Dent County south into Fulton County Arkansas.
Cool and quiet weather will follow for Friday with afternoon highs only in the 50s. High cloudiness looks pretty widespread and this will lead to filtered sunshine.
Another storm will follow, with rain breaking out Friday night and continuing through much of Saturday. Temperatures will remain chilly with readings stuck in the 40s.
The backend of the weekend looks a little better, at least it will be dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy though with highs in the 50s.
The active pattern will rev up once again by Monday with a chance for episodes of wet weather on nearly a daily basis. A front will be located to the south of the Ozarks with ripples of unsettled weather moving along the front. This will lead to a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with temperatures remaining on the cool side. The front may be able to lift north of the area Wednesday ushering in higher humidity and warmer temperatures. A potent storm in the Southwest will finally out by Thursday. This will push a cold front across the area. The threat for severe weather will increase by Thursday along with heavier rain. Rain totals through the end of next week could be excessive with amounts of 3 to 6″ possible with locally higher amounts not out of the question. The threat of flooding and flash flooding looks like it will be centered around the storms on Thursday.
The active pattern should take a brief break late next week as cooler air moves back in.