One final day of hot weather has come to a close, and it did so with a bang across Northern Arkansas. The heat broke there this afternoon with numerous thunderstorms, some severe. Heavy rain fell too, with pockets of 2 to 4″ scattered from Carroll County east into Fulton County. During the evening the focus for storms and heavy rainfall shifted back up to along Hwy. 54. Very heavy rainfall is possible with these storms and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas north of I-44. 2 to 4″ of rainfall is expected in places with locally higher amounts not out of the question. This area of showers and thunderstorms will begin sagging back to the south and southeast after midnight.
Much of the area will be getting soaked to start the day Thursday, but showers and thunderstorms will wind down as we get into the afternoon with just a few showers around later in the day. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday’s round of rain will likely push the front and the focus for the next round of rain further south for Thursday night into Friday morning. Areas near and south of the state line will be more in line for that round of heavy rain. The rain should once again fade by Friday afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the low to mid-80s.
Drier air will start filtering into the Ozarks from the northeast Friday leading to mostly dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Skies will stay rather cloudy through Saturday with only a slight chance for showers. Sunday looks partly cloudy and a bit warmer.
Some of the recent model guidance has suggested that drier air may never make it into the Ozarks with the front remaining stalled over the Ozarks. If this scenario bears out, then we’ll have to add higher rain chances back in for the weekend timeframe into early next week.
Right now, mostly dry and sunnier weather is expected on Monday. This will give way to a wetter pattern once again Tuesday and Wednesday as a series of fronts move into the Ozarks before finally pushing through on Wednesday. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms followed by quiet and unusually mild weather as we slip into Labor Day Weekend.