The threat of severe weather is increasing as we head into Wednesday. The Ozarks will be under the gun with two rounds of severe weather. The first round will be likely before sunrise and last through the early morning hours. The second round will be late afternoon into the evening hours.
This set-up for severe weather is rare for August says Chief Meteorologist Jamie Warriner, “This is unusual to have such a strong combination of shear and instability in August. If you look at tornado climatology for our area, August is one of the quietest periods of the year. This has more of a spring look with colder air aloft with the wave and strong shear to go with it.”
Where is the chance for severe weather?: The entire viewing area is under a SLIGHT risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Our far eastern counties have been upgraded to an ENHANCED risk for severe weather. Areas along the Missouri/Arkansas state line are under the greatest threat of afternoon severe weather.
What type of severe weather is possible? The first round will likely be widespread and will bring the greatest threat of wind and heavy rains. By lunchtime, we should start to see a bit of a lull in the action. If the sun comes out and things clear off, round #2 could fire up strongly. If this is the case, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes. We expect storms to fire up around 4 p.m.
There is a chance the atmosphere could be out of energy after the first round is over. If that is the case, the afternoon/evening severe weather forecast could be a bit of a bust.