Showery weather returned to the Ozarks Tuesday as the conveyor belt of showery weather slipped back into the area. A wave of showers that spread in during the afternoon is on the way out this evening and the rest of the night looks mostly cloudy and quiet. While most of the area will remain dry the remainder of the night, another wave of steadier rain will spread northeast out of Arkansas across areas from Mtn. Home, AR. to Eminence, MO.
Wednesday will be drier, but we won’t completely shake free of the rain. Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny and warm conditions. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s during the afternoon with instability building. There won’t be much to trigger showers, but the instability should lead to a few isolated showers and storms popping up during the heat of the afternoon, mainly south of Hwy. 54. The storms will be “pulsey”, and may get briefly strong enough to produce strong wind gusts and some hail. The storms should fade pretty quickly by early evening.
Thursday is still shaping up to be an active day of weather across the area. Multiple waves of storms will likely impact parts of the Ozarks Thursday into Thursday night. The first wave of strong to severe storms will sweep across Central Missouri Thursday morning into the early afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are possible with this round. This activity will likely remain along and north of Hwy. 54.
Additional lines of storms will organize across Kansas and Northwest Missouri during the afternoon. This activity will build east and southeast during the afternoon and overnight hours. Damaging winds will again be the main severe weather mode with hail possible too. The tornado risk is less clear, but there will likely be a risk for a few tornadoes. Again, the main severe weather mode will be widespread damaging winds. Rainfall will be heavy, but the storms will be on the move and totals will tend to be in the 1 to 2″ range. The rainfall could lead to some localized flooding but it shouldn’t be widespread.
A nice stretch of weather will follow the storms as a mild air mass builds in Friday. The pattern through the weekend looks dry with clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cool at night, dipping into the upper 40s and 50s with afternoon highs in the low to mid-70s. Temperatures will be trending higher by Memorial Day.
The pattern will trend wetter again Monday into Tuesday as moisture moves back into the area and a trough moves into the middle of the country.