A cold and wet May day has set records for the lack of warmth. Highs were only in the upper 40s, breaking record low highs across the Ozarks. The pattern will shift gears on Wednesday with warm and humid weather returning to the area. The rain won’t end though and thunderstorms will become more likely with the warm-up.
For tonight, we’ll find some drizzle throughout the evening along and south of the interstate. There could also be some fog. Showers will increase in coverage and build back to the north late tonight with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible as a warm makes a move north. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 40s this evening with a slow rise by sunrise.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be around during the morning, gradually slipping east out of the area by early afternoon. Breaks in the clouds will likely develop with temperatures and humidity levels noticeably higher during the afternoon. There will be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon as a weak upper-level storms moves through.
A warm and stormy pattern will follow through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Thursday may be the warmest day with the highest chance for strong to severe storms. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day, but storms look more likely along a cold front northwest of the area. This area of stormy weather will sag south Thursday night bringing strong to severe storms and heavy rain south. The set-up appears to be one that favors hail and wind along with heavy rainfall. The strongest storms look like they’ll tend to be over Western Missouri.
The area of stormy weather will sag into Northern Arkansas by Friday morning. This will likely set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area again on Friday. A boundary looks like it will remain over the area through Saturday bringing additional episodes of showers and thunderstorms to the area through Saturday night. The front looks like it will get a push by Sunday morning, clearing most of the Ozarks by Sunday afternoon. This will bring an end to the wet pattern for most of the region.
Rain totals of 2 to 4″ are expected through the weekend with locally higher amounts possible. This is on top of the 1 to 2″ parts of the area have seen over the past 24 hours. This additional rainfall will likely lead to flooding concerns at times into the weekend.
The pattern looks like it will dry out Sunday into Monday with drier weather through the first half of next week.