FLASH FLOOD WATCH goes until 10 AM Tuesday for counties along/ east of HWY 65. There, 2-4″+ of rain is likely as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal roll through. Expect heavy rain and flash flooding overnight Monday into Tuesday.
“Cristobal” made landfall just south of New Orleans as a tropical storm on Sunday. Showers will continue for your morning commute. Showers will lift north out of the area during the morning on Tuesday.
The biggest concern with “Cristobal” is the threat of very heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas along and east of HWY 65 Tuesday morning. There will be a very sharp cut off to the rain on the west side and it looks like that will be just east of I-49. A general 2-4″ is expected within the watch area. Totals of 4-6″ look possible though, especially where the band of heavier rain is expected to set up east of HWY 65. Flooding and flash flooding will be a concern with the risk of flooding at night making it especially dangerous.
Another concern is for a bit of isolated severe weather. The northeast quadrant of the storm will be moving across North Central Arkansas and South Central Missouri with enough instability for a few stronger storms with the leading bands of rain. Stronger wind gusts and a very low tornado risk is possible. There will likely be general wind gusts of 30-40 mph near and east of HWY 65.
As “Cristobal” moves away on Tuesday another potent storm will move in. Severe weather will be possible later in the afternoon into the early evening, but it’s not a certainty. Warmer and drier air aloft will move in behind “Cristobal” with a cap setting up over the area. This may stifle storm potential. If storms can develop severe weather will be possible with those storms given the wind energy.
Sunny and pleasant weather will move behind Tuesday’s storm. The lower humidity will make for cooler nighttime temperatures with highs in the upper 70’s Wednesday.
The rest of the week looks fairly nice. There will be another front trying to move through later Friday, but it looks dry for now. Overnight temperatures will remain pleasantly cool with the afternoons seasonably warm.