The rain has stayed away so far today, but rain chances will be on the rise overnight. It looks like a stormy stretch of weather for later tonight through Wednesday night. Waves of thunderstorms will generate heavy rainfall and a risk of flooding. Flood Watches have been posted for areas along and south of the interstate across Southern Missouri into Northwest Arkansas where the heaviest rainfall is expected.
For this evening will find mostly cloudy and mild weather. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may try to creep into Western Missouri and Northwest Arkansas before midnight. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase after midnight with rain becoming widespread along and south of the interstate down to along the state line by sunrise. This will be a favored zone for rain and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day Wednesday. The southern edge of this area of rain and thunderstorms will be the most favored area for heavier rainfall and severe weather.
There will be an isolated severe weather risk across the area Wednesday, but severe weather looks more probable south of Hwy. 60 throughout the day into the Wednesday night where there will be better access to higher instability. A few severe storms with hail and damaging winds are expected. An isolated tornado will also be possible.
Rain and thunderstorms will gradually build southeast across Northern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Showers will continue into Thursday morning tapering off to a few light showers. Clouds will clear out during the afternoon.
Rainfall will be the bigger story with Wednesday’s storm with an axis of heavy rainfall expected to set up south of the interstate. Totals of 2 to 3″ will be common with locally higher amounts over 4″ possible.
A warm and dry stretch of weather will follow Wednesday’s storm Friday and Saturday. The mornings will be cool with afternoon highs in the 70s.
We’ll have to keep an eye out for rain chances late Sunday into Sunday night. The storm moving through Wednesday may leave behind some energy over Texas and this may lift northeast across the region Sunday into Monday. This will result in increasing clouds Sunday and a chance for showers overnight.
We’ll be between storms Monday, but there may still be a chance for showers. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely later Tuesday as the next storm moves in and pushes a cold front into the area. There could be some severe weather with this system as it moves through.
Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will remain warm and humidity levels will be running higher too.