We’re just halfway through a November nice spell with temperatures running well above normal. The afternoons have been especially nice, topping out in the mid-70s, now the overnights are getting mild with lows in the 50s tonight and 60s Thursday night. Afternoon highs both Thursday and Friday will soar into the mid to upper 70s, only a handful of degrees below record highs.
The warmth will come with increasing wind too. Breezy winds Thursday will come with gusts over 20 mph and it will be downright windy Friday with gusts between 30 and 40 mph.
By Friday afternoon, widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will move into the area. We are monitoring the chance of severe storms. While there is plenty of wind energy to drive these storms, there isn’t a lot of instability to fire them up. Of course, things could change as we are still three days out. With the current profile, there will be a risk of damaging wind gusts.
Yesterday, models were taking the heaviest rain into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Today, it is trending more east, into the Ozarks. I still think 1-2″ of rain will be likely, with a more distinct cut-off out to our east. This will be a quick-moving storm system that will bring a lot of rain in a short amount of time.
Chillier weather will follow the storm Saturday, but the cooldown will be brief with highs back up near 70° Sunday. The warmer weather will hang around through much of next week before the pattern turns colder.