What a week! Temperatures have been consistently 10-15° above average, making the start of November very pleasant. The warmth will continue through Friday with late summer-like lows in the 60s and afternoon highs back in the mid to upper 70s.
The warmth will come with more wind with breezy overnight winds picking up during the day Friday. Gusts between 30 and 40 mph are expected with gusts over 40 mph possible west of Springfield.
The stout southerly winds will be loading the area up with moisture which will play a role in rain and thunderstorms heading into Friday evening.
The chance of rain will increase late Friday afternoon, with storms arriving early Friday evening. As the cold front pushes through, an organized line will push through, bringing a high wind threat. Instability levels still look very low with this storm cutting back into the risk for other modes of severe weather. There will be a high amount of wind energy leading to a risk for a brief tornado, especially if instability levels run higher than currently forecast.
It is looking like a widespread 1-2″ will be likely from late Friday into early Saturday.
The rain will quickly exit the area with clouds following Saturday morning. A brief round of cooler weather Saturday will quickly give way to another November warm spell Sunday through Thursday of next week.