Midday Weather Update:
High pressure has been building in through the last 24 hours and that will give us a chilly but quiet start to our Thursday. It’s looking like the nicest day of the next 7 so make sure you get out and enjoy it. We’ll see lots of sunshine with temps topping out in the upper 60s for much of the region. Friday will mark the transition to a more active pattern across the region. This high moves away and it opens the gateway to our next storm system. Winds will become more southerly ahead of this low with skies becoming mostly cloudy. A few showers are possible but not all of us will see any raindrops. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s.
A warm front will push north into the area Saturday. This will help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms on and off throughout much of the day with a tendency for the highest rain chances to be north of Hwy. 60. Temperatures will be mild with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and 70s.
The front will be draped across the area Saturday night and may trigger another widespread round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. We may squeak out some peeks of sunshine which will help our temps rebound some compared to Saturday. This will open the door to much warmer weather with highs in the 70s and possibly 80s. Humidity levels will be up too.
While a few stronger storms can’t be ruled out over the course of the weekend, no widespread severe weather is expected. Rainfall will be heaviest closer to Central Missouri where amounts of 1 to 2″ are possible. Rain amounts will tend to be under an inch to the south.
The pattern will remain active through next week with a trough positioned in the West. A steady south to southeast flow will keep temperatures warm and humidity levels up throughout the week. The pattern will also tend to prevent cold fronts from moving through the area.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day throughout the week. The risk for severe weather is tough to pin down this far but it’s something we’ll continue to monitor as we get closer. Wind energy over the area doesn’t look to be very high and this will help keep the severe risk more limited. Storms may have a tendency to be driven more by instability that will build during the heat of the afternoon leading to a few marginally severe hail or wind events.
Have a great day!
-Meteorologist T.J. Springer