Warm again today, monitoring a severe threat late Friday —
A stationary front is stalled up to our north in central Missouri. With a low-pressure center strengthening to our west, southerly winds will remain steady today and moisture will increase across the Ozarks.
Expect mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the lower 70’s on gusty southerly winds. A few showers/ rumbles of thunder will be possible to the north in central Missouri.
That front slides south a bit tonight, bringing a chance of showers/ thunder down to the I-44 corridor. Lows stay warm again in the middle 50’s.
Tomorrow the cold front associated with our developing low-pressure center approaches from the west. We’ll have continued strong, warm southerly flow with highs in the middle and upper 60’s. Expect scattered showers/ thunder in the afternoon, especially in central Missouri.
The final push of the cold front will come through by Friday evening/ overnight. If we can build enough instability (fuel for growing storms from warm/ moist air mass) we could have a few storms be strong to severe mainly with the threat of large hail. A damaging wind threat would develop if storms organize along the cold front into a line segment.
Locally heavy rain and lightning will also be a concern. By the time rain wraps up, totals could approach 2″ in central Missouri, about 1″ around Springfield. This would pose a limited flood threat near rivers/ low water crossings in central Missouri.
The cold front passes to the east by Saturday morning, showers exit Saturday afternoon but clouds linger. Temperatures will then start to tumble as a much colder air mass moves in behind the cold front. Highs in the 50’s on Saturday will occur early in the morning with temperatures falling through the 40’s all day.
We drop to temperatures near/ below freezing by Sunday morning.
High pressure takes over Sunday afternoon, we’ll have ample sunshine but highs still chilly around 50 degrees.
Next week looks mostly sunny and quiet with a gradual warming trend. Monday will start with highs in the middle 50’s, we’re in the middle 60’s by Tuesday/ Wednesday.