Quiet weather heading into the evening thanks to the cold front that swept through over the past 24 hours. The front currently is stalled just south of the state line but will lift back to the north tonight. Slightly drier air coming in behind the front will also result in a nice night, particularly northeast of Springfield where we’ll find lows in the mid-60s. No worry of rain tonight. It looks like the front will lift through quietly with just a wind shift by Friday morning.
Hotter weather returns to the Ozarks Friday on southwest winds. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s during the afternoon with heat indices in the mid-90s to around 100°. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will try to pop up east of Hwy. 65, with areas to the west remaining dry.
Active weather will return to the area by Saturday. The first area that could see some stormy weather will be up near Central Missouri. This will be close to the front where at least one wave of thunderstorms will likely sweep through Friday night into early Saturday. Additional showers and storms will remain possible throughout the day in this area with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms bubbling up in the afternoon heat further south. There will be quite a bit of cloud cover over the area Saturday too keeping afternoon highs generally in the low to mid-80s north to upper 80s south.
Late afternoon into the overnight Saturday will be the favored timeframe for widespread rain and thunderstorms and a threat for severe weather. The storm Saturday will have more wind energy than is typical for July. This will result in some of the storms becoming severe. Damaging winds will be the primary mode of severe weather with a few instances of large hail possible. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out either. The threat for severe weather will tend to build from northwest to southeast across the Ozarks ending late in the evening as storms push east and southeast out of the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may linger into Sunday morning.
Rain totals will be locally heavy with many locations picking up at least an inch through Saturday night. There will be a risk for even higher amounts of 2 to 5″ on a very localized level. This could result in isolated pockets of flash flooding.
The dip in the jet stream that will bring the stormy weather on Saturday will linger over the middle of the country through Monday. This will keep a chance for showers going through Sunday along with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be about 10° cooler than normal with temperatures stuck in the 70s all day Sunday.
Clouds will thin out some by Monday afternoon and rain chances will diminish.
With the dip in the jet stream lifting out of the area by Tuesday we’ll get back to sunnier and warmer weather. Afternoon highs will be back in the upper 80s with mostly dry weather expected both days.
Another front may approach the area Thursday bringing an uptick in rain chances.