The weather has remained warm and quiet over most of the area but will take a stormier tone overnight. Showers and thunderstorms have been lined up from west to east near and north of Hwy. 54 with additional storms over Southeast Kansas. This area of rain won’t shift south much through early Friday morning and excessive rainfall is possible. By late evening 1 to 2″ of rain had fallen north of a Stockton to Camdenton line. Another 1 to 2″ may fall here with even higher amounts possible with storms that have persisted over Southeast Kansas. There, amounts over 4″ are possible through Friday morning.
The band of rain and thunderstorms will surge south and southeast by sunrise, sweeping across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas through early Friday afternoon. Rain totals south of the interstate won’t be as heavy with rain totals generally around an inch or less. Locally higher amounts around 2″ are possible though.
Behind the morning round of rain, the area will dry out with some sun gradually developing from northwest to southeast. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the afternoon into Friday night. The rain and cloud cover will trim back the recent heat with highs generally in the low 80s.
Looking ahead to the weekend, we’ll find a weak cold front slowly sagging south across the area. The atmosphere will gradually dry out Saturday into Sunday from northeast to southwest. This will trim back shower chances into Sunday.
Saturday will likely start with patchy fog and some low cloudiness. Skies will become partly sunny with a few spotty showers possible, especially to the south.
Drier air will take hold over more of the area by Sunday. Skies will be partly sunny with a few spotty showers confined to areas of far southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas.
Humidity levels over the weekend won’t change too much. Temperatures will run a little below normal for mid-July with highs in the mid-80s.
The pattern will remain mostly dry through much of next week as a dry pocket of air in the atmosphere remains in the region. Temperatures will continue a little below normal with overnight lows also dropping a bit as humidity levels drop. Look for lows in the mid-60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Afternoon highs will generally be in the mid-80s through Wednesday. The pattern will gradually heat up later next week with highs near 90° by Friday. There isn’t any major signal for rain, but we should see a risk of spotty showers returning to the area as humidity levels head higher.