Today we set up for the big show…the big storm we’ve been talking about all week finally starts to take center stage.
The surface low-pressure center from this storm is swirling to our northwest and strengthening. This has increased winds overnight and will keep us warm and windy through the afternoon. Expect southerly gusts to 40 mph with highs near 60 degrees.
As the air mass moistens up, showers will break out by this afternoon. We’ll keep showers abundant through the overnight. Lows stay very warm tonight only dropping into the 50’s! This is thanks to the continued breezy southerly winds.
Multiple hazards set up for Friday and Saturday.
HEAVY RAIN: FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 6 AM Friday until 6 AM Saturday for the entire area. The atmosphere will be soaked, especially for this time of year. We’re expecting widespread totals 2-4″ of rain. Locally, we could see totals approach 6″ as the front comes through with extra lift. This type of heavy rain, with dry/ winter staged vegetation will set a flash flooding threat. Please be aware of water levels if you live near shallow rivers/ creeks.
SEVERE STORMS: With this storm so tightly wound, we are tapping into a lot of wind energy from the jet stream. With the soaked air mass and strong flow off the Gulf of Mexico, we will also have enough instability or fuel from heat/ humidity, to spark strong/ severe storms. Expect isolated severe storms in the afternoon. A line of storms will organize by the evening commute, pushing from west to east through midnight. Along this line, the main threat will be damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Severe storms should exit the eastern Ozarks shortly after midnight.
WINTRY MIX/ SNOW: Behind this strong front we’ll find temperatures tumbling heading into Saturday morning. Temps tumble from highs near 60 on Friday, to highs starting in the 30’s on Saturday. The fall will continue through the afternoon with temperatures in the 20’s and wind chills in the teens by the end of the day. Expect a change to a wintry mix to snow by Saturday morning. The last piece of upper-level energy moves through Saturday afternoon, bringing a round of snow before the system exits. The heaviest snow will focus well NW in the Kansas City area (expect snow on the ground if you’re headed to Arrowhead on Sunday). Totals could approach 3-4″ in extreme central Missouri. Expect about 1-2″ snow along/ NW of I-44. Expect a dusting to an inch southeast. With temperatures falling quick and blustery winds, expect slick roads and low visibility to develop Saturday afternoon. Be careful traveling!
ALL of this mess clears by Sunday. Expect sunshine and highs in the 40’s. Much colder highs in the 30’s up in Kansas City for the Chiefs playoff game.
Temperatures return to the 50’s on Monday with quiet weather continuing.