FLASH FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
Wet weather began to spread into the area Thursday afternoon. This is just the first salvos of a very wet storm that will likely end with some snow.
For tonight, we’ll find scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and lightning are possible, but severe weather isn’t expected. The heavier rain tonight will tend to be south of the interstate. There could be a bit of fog as well as moisture builds north into the Ozarks. This will also cause temperatures to hold steady tonight or slowly rise closer to sunrise.
Drizzle or light showers are possible Friday morning with an uptick in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. A few severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon. The severe risk will rise Friday night as a line of thunderstorms organizes to the west, slowly pushing east throughout the night. Severe weather will be focused around this line with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible.
The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture, priming the area for very heavy rainfall. A general 2 to 4″ is expected Friday afternoon through Friday night, locally higher amounts are possible. The heaviest rain may focus near I-44 earlier in the evening as storms organize near a stalled front before the line makes more of a move to the east later in the evening. This is a scenario that will likely lead to flash flooding and the fact that it’s occurring at night will make it especially dangerous for travel.
Temperatures will tumble in the wake of the storm by Saturday morning, falling through the 30s by sunrise. Temperatures will continue to slide with much of the area in the 20s by late afternoon. Winds will also be gusty, driving down wind chills into the teens during the afternoon.
Wintry weather will spread southeast into the area Saturday morning. A light wintry mix of light freezing rain and sleet should quickly transition to snow from northwest to southeast. Accumulating ice and snow will tend to stay north of a Jasper, AR, to Eminence, MO, line. The heavier stripe of snow still appears to fall from Wichita across Kansas City northeast into Southeast Iowa. In our area, 2 to 4″ totals are possible north of a Joplin to Lake of the Ozarks line. Springfield could see around an inch to as much as 2″. Amounts will drop off to the southeast.
Roads Saturday morning will initially just be wet, but as temperatures drop into the 20s early Saturday afternoon, slick and snow-covered roads will become increasingly likely.
The snow will taper off to flurries Saturday evening with clearing skies overnight. Temperatures will drop into the teens over snow-covered areas. with 20s elsewhere.
The area will thaw out on Sunday with sunshine pushing temperatures into the 40s.
The warming trend will continue to melt off any remaining snow and ice on Monday as sunshine pushes temperatures into the low to mid-50s.
The pattern looks quiet and cool through the middle of the week. The next shot of cold-weather looks to hit the area by Thursday.