One of the nicest weekends of the year came with bright skies and afternoon highs that were well above normal. Temperatures Sunday afternoon managed to hit 70° in many spots. The mild and quiet pattern is about to take a turn though as the pattern turns much wetter.
For tonight, an area of showers will spread in from the west by morning. Temperatures tonight won’t cool much thanks to brisk southerly winds and cloud cover with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
The rain will become rather steady during the morning Monday, and will likely come down pretty good at times. By afternoon the steady rain will become more showery from west to east. Temperatures will slowly warm through the 50s.
A cold front will approach from the northwest by late Monday afternoon. We’ll have to keep an eye on instability levels. There will be plenty of wind energy to organize storms, but instability levels look very low thanks to the cloudy and wet day. IF enough instability can materialize, a few strong to severe storms may develop late in the day into the evening hours along the front. The highest chance for this scenario to occur will tend to be over Southwest Missouri and across Northwest and North Central Arkansas.
There won’t be much of a cool down behind the front with temperatures dipping into the upper 30s Tuesday morning. Skies will become mostly sunny with afternoon highs in the low 60s.
The quiet won’t last long though with a wave of showers and thunderstorms sweeping across the area Wednesday morning. It looks like the focus will be across Southwest Missouri and Northern Arkansas. A few of the storms could be strong with this round too with hail a possibility.
Skies are expected to clear by afternoon with afternoon highs flirting with 70°.
Thursday will be another warm one with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s. A front will move into the area by early evening, and it will likely trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. There could be a few severe storms with this round too.
The cold front will push south of the area by Friday with cooler air spreading in. Clouds will thicken back up again later in the day as a storm moves out of the West. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 50s. Showers will break out late in the day with rain and possibly some thunder overnight into Saturday morning. Heavy rain looks possible with this storm, but it currently looks like the focus for stronger storms will remain to the south.
Temperatures will be cool on Saturday with clouds slowly trying to thin out late in the day. Sunday looks brighter with a cold morning giving way to a cool afternoon.
Rain totals over the next week could be heavy with multiple waves of stormy weather and a general 1 to 3″ is possible.