Some bumpy weather possible tonight. The evening has been cloudy and quiet so far with just a few widely scattered showers. A front is located just northwest of the area. Temperatures are cool, but higher up in the atmosphere it is much colder and this is generating some instability. There’s also a bit of wind energy, but it’s a little on the weak side. A weak upper-level storm and a cold front will trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms by late evening.
Some of the storms could become strong or even marginally severe with hail possible along with a chance for a few strong wind gusts. The storms will likely be there most intense over Southwest Missouri near the interstate around midnight or shortly thereafter with a transition to more of a line of showers and thunderstorms that will sweep east-southeast across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas through the early morning hours Monday. Heavy rain is also expected, especially over Southwest Missouri where the storms originate near the interstate. This is where rain totals over an inch are most likely with amounts possibly approaching 2″. The rain will be locally heavy further east but will tend to be an inch or less.
The rain should be clear of most of the area by sunrise with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures to start the day Monday. Clouds will be tough to clear out, especially along and south of the interstate. Some sun is expected to develop further north during the afternoon. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid-50s north to low 50s along and just south of the interstate to upper 50s to low 60s over Northern Arkansas.
There might be a few light showers during the day south of the interstate with an uptick in shower chances by early evening Monday. A few thunderstorms look possible near the front over Northern Arkansas during the evening hours.
A long stretch of bright and quiet weather will follow for the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. A storm in the Southwest will remain detached from the main flow across the northern tier of the U.S. This will keep the storm on a southern path that will keep it south of the Ozarks. Skies look mostly sunny on a daily basis with a bit more high cloudiness on Wednesday as the storm passes south of the area. Morning temperatures will be chilly with mild afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s through Thursday.
A shot of cooler air will try to work in by Friday, but skies will be bright and afternoon highs will still be in the 50s.
Weekend weather looks pretty nice too. Saturday will be mostly sunny and mild with increasing clouds on Sunday and mild temperatures. Showers may spread into the area by Sunday evening.