There’s a big shift in the pattern this week. July has been marked by hot and dry weather. Springfield has been on a 13 streak of highs at 90° or greater and rainfall has amounted to only 0.93″ for the month. We’ll be playing catch up this week as the pattern shifts into a cooler and wetter mode.
A summer ridge which has tried to control our pattern on and off for the past several weeks will shift into the Western U.S. for an extended period of time. This will open the door to a series of fronts this week that will bring wet weather and below normal temperatures to the Ozarks as we close out the month.
For tonight, skies will become mostly cloudy from the northwest as a band of showers and thunderstorms near a front near I-70 slowly sags south. A few showers will sneak into areas from El Dorado Springs east to Lake of the Ozarks, especially closer to sunrise. The rest of the area should remain dry into Monday morning.
The front will continue to slowly sag southeast, arriving near I-44 by noon and into Northwest Arkansas by late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with cloudy skies and showers behind the front into the evening hours. Temperatures will warm quickly during the morning into the 80s, falling back into the 70s once the rain sets in during the afternoon.
The front looks like it will stall to the south by Tuesday morning before returning back to the north by Wednesday. This coupled with passing disturbances will keep the pattern mostly cloudy with bouts of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The front will make a push back to the south on Thursday, stalling over Northern Arkansas before another wave on the front pushes the front well south of the area over the weekend. This will keep rounds of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity going across the area into Saturday before drier weather develops in time for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run below normal through the weekend.
Severe weather chances don’t look high this week with wind energy remaining fairly weak, but the multiple waves of showers and storms could lead to some flooding potential. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4″ are possible over the next 7 days with locally higher amounts possible.