A bout of hotter and drier weather to start the week, but it won’t be completely rain free. Tonight looks mostly clear to partly cloudy and warm with temperatures settling into the low to mid-70s. There will be a shot at some isolated shower activity by sunrise over Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas.
The threat of showers will be limited and will shift off to the west by afternoon. Sunshine and southwest winds will send temperatures soaring by afternoon with low to mid-90s common. Heat index values will top out near 105°. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will likely fire up in the afternoon heat over South Central Missouri and North Central Arkansas.
The core of a summer ridge will continue to hold sway over the area on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures in the mid-90s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out to the east, but most areas will stay dry.
The summer ridge will begin to retreat back into the Southwestern U.S. This will allow a cool front to push south into the area by Wednesday, triggering showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look hot, but rain and clouds will dictate how warm we get Wednesday afternoon.
The front will stall just south and southwest of the Ozarks, putting us in a pattern we’ve seen over recent weeks. There will likely be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day Thursday into the weekend. This along with cloud cover will help knock afternoon highs back into the 80s. The threat of some heavier rain may come together, but it will likely tend to stay focused closer to the front, and that may remain more to the west and southwest where the higher rain chances will be.