We’ve started the week on a cloudy and damp note. Morning showers slipped out of the area with another wave of showers moving in for this evening. The rain will generally be light with temperatures falling through the low 60s. The shower threat will diminish by late evening, but a few showers will remain possible through the rest of the night. Temperatures will eventually settle into the mid to upper 50s.
Spring temperatures and humidity will bring a threat of severe weather to the area Tuesday. A cold front will be diving southeast into an unstable air mass. Ingredients are there for strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening with plenty of wind energy, especially higher in the atmosphere. Storms will fire near the front by mid-afternoon with the line pushing southeast into the evening. Initially, storms will pose mainly a hail threat, but as they form more of a line, damaging winds will become more of a concern. This will especially be true where the segments of the line surge east. This will also be a focus for an isolated tornado threat.
Higher instability will reside to our southwest from Oklahoma into Southwest Arkansas and this coupled with a warm front and low-level jet nosing in will tend to focus the higher threat for severe weather to the southwest, or across Oklahoma into Arkansas.
The threat for storms will linger through late evening, gradually ending from northwest to southeast.
Chillier air will sweep in behind the front with temperatures slipping into the upper 40s and low 50s by morning. Clouds will clear out a bit but will likely fill back in Wednesday morning from north to south. A few showers will also be possible with the clouds on Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the 60s west to near 60° east. The cool temperatures will feel even cooler with winds remaining gusty out of the northwest throughout the day.
Skies will clear heading into Wednesday evening with a clear and cold start to the day Thursday. Skies look bright though with temperatures soaring to near 70° during the afternoon.
The warming trend will ramp up Friday into Saturday and the pattern looks like it will remain quiet. Thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday as a cold front edges south across the area. There could be a few strong storms, but the threat doesn’t look widespread.
The front looks like it will get nudged far enough south for drier weather on Monday.