It looks like we’re beginning the week on a warm and active note with severe weather expected Monday night.
For tonight, we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies with lingering showers fading away.
Monday will start quietly enough with mostly cloudy skies across the area. The day will stay fairly quiet with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb quickly through the 70s with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Humidity levels will be on the way up too. A cold front will push in from the northwest during the afternoon. A strong cap will be in place and this will tend to prevent any thunderstorm activity from developing despite the very warm and humid conditions.
The unstable conditions will play a role by the evening hours as the cap erodes away. Thunderstorms will develop over Northeast Oklahoma by Monday evening, continuing to build northeast into Northwest Arkansas and Southwest Missouri by late evening. Conditions look ripe for large hail out of the stronger storms. The storms will gradually evolve into a large area of rain and thunderstorms as the activity pushes east and northeast across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas overnight. This is when there will be a transition to more of a threat of damaging winds with some hail. A few tornadoes will also be possible. The highest threat for severe weather Monday night appears to be south of the interstate.
Cooler air will work in behind the storm Tuesday morning. Temperatures will likely fall from around 60° near sunrise in Springfield through the 50s to around 50° by noon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will end Tuesday afternoon with some peeks of sun possible by the end of the day.
The rest of the week looks pretty quiet with temperatures running a little bit below normal. We’ll have a system sweeping throughout of the northwest on Thursday. It will bring some cloud cover to the area and possibly a few showers, mainly northeast of Springfield.
Active weather is expected to return over the weekend as the jet stream flattens out and a trough tries to get established in the West. A front will try to wobble north on Saturday before dropping back to the south on Sunday. This should lead to rounds of rain and thunderstorm activity. Heavy rainfall and stronger storms are possible.