Midday Update:

Warm-Up on Tap

Yesterday was active across the region as the cold front continued to slide off to the south. It stalled across Arkansas last evening, making for multiple tornadic supercells that worked through the heart of the Natural State. Today, we’re focused on the warm front that lifts into the area. Temps get a big boost as it moves through the region ahead of our next cold front. Highs soar back into the 70s and 80s which is well above average for this time of the year. This warm front not only allows moisture to stream into the area but higher instability as well.

Severe Weather Possible

These ingredients lead to a greater potential for severe weather tomorrow with a Slight Risk in play for most of the viewing area. What plays in our favor is a cap in the atmosphere or an elevated layer of warm air that inhibits storm development. It acts as a lid on a pot of boiling water. If we can break it, or it weakens, more widespread severe storms will be on the table. It’ll be strong and most data suggests we won’t break it. Closer to the area of low pressure, the chances get higher of breaking that cap and that’s where we find an Enhanced Risk. It encompasses the KC Metro, meaning numerous severe storms. All forms of severe weather are on the table including a few tornadoes. It’s something we’ll be watching extremely close.

Better Chances for Severe Storms Wednesday

The best chances for storms in the Ozarks arrive late tonight as the cold front continues to move our way. As the cold front slides into the viewing area, we’ll likely see a line of storms beginning to form along with it. This would lead to more of a gusty wind threat early Wednesday morning with the potential for spin-up tornadoes and embedded hail. Depending on the speed of the front, it’ll likely get rejuvenated late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. As it moves east of Highway 65, it’ll run into more unstable air to the east as temps and dew points spike ahead of the boundary. By Wednesday night, we should be seeing this moisture beginning to move east of the viewing area with cooler and drier air starting to take over.

Drying Out Thursday

We’ll see a lot more sunshine on Thursday with highs falling back into the 50s and 60s. Another disturbance moves our way Friday into Saturday bringing the potential for a few showers with temperatures rising back above normal. Afternoon readings will likely climb back into the 60s and 70s Friday afternoon under many cloudy conditions. A better chance of showers and storms arrives to end the weekend thanks to a storm system and cold front. We could see a few stronger storms once again as instability moves back into the Ozarks. If you’re traveling anywhere for Easter, make sure you keep tabs on the latest forecast. Easter services could also be a bit wet as well as the Easter Egg Hunts so you may want to have a backup plan.

Have a great day!

-Meteorologist T.J. Springer