Midday Update:

Moisture Chances Rise

Our next disturbance is moving in and it rejuvenates our chance for showers and thunderstorms today. This area of low pressure will move into the Ozarks as we progress through our Thursday, bringing widespread showers and storms. The good news is we’re not expecting severe weather as we’ll have limited instability.

Unsettled Pattern Holds

As warm air surges northward with a warm front on Friday, we’ll see another round of showers and thunderstorms. Dew points will be on the rise as well as instability and this will lead to a slightly higher chance of severe storms on Friday evening. Make sure you stay weather aware!

Severe Storms Possible

Friday night into early Saturday is looking like our best window to see severe storms. We have a Marginal to Slight Risk across parts of the Ozarks, meaning isolated to scattered severe storms are possible. Hail and gusty winds are the main hazards but isolated tornadoes are on the table. This activity will be developing along and ahead of the cold front which is slated to move through Saturday morning into the early afternoon. We will likely have a strong cap in place and that could inhibit development across the area. This is something we’ll be monitoring. Ingredients for severe weather are there but it depends on how they come together. Currently, the threat is once again looking conditional due to the timing of the front and placement of the low. This risk shifts to the east along with the cold front on Saturday with our eastern neighborhoods possibly seeing a couple of severe storms but chances aren’t looking that high at the moment. High pressure briefly takes over Sunday which will bring a return to the sunshine. Temps look to top out in the mid-70s which is seasonable for this time of year.

Next Round of Rain

The active pattern holds into early next week as our next storm system moves in. This one could bring some rain by late Sunday but it’s definitely going to be unsettled by Monday with the potential for more strong thunderstorms. The positive is temps will be milder with highs back into the 70s Monday into Tuesday. It’s looking like a cold front moves in by Tuesday and that will bring scattered thunderstorms yet again. Wednesday is looking drier but some data suggest that this front stalls and that could lead to more isolated storms mid-week.

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Have a great day!

-Meteorologist T.J. Springer