Our stretch of beautiful January days is coming to a close. We’ve got a big storm to deal with later this week and into the weekend.
Clouds will be on the increase late tonight as moisture surges north and northeast into the area on breezy southerly winds. Temperatures won’t cool all that much with lows only in the 40s.
We’ll wake up to cloudy skies Thursday with drizzle and light showers gradually breaking out later in the day. The higher chance for wet weather will be after noon. Winds will remain gusty with temperatures climbing into the 50s.
Showers will become a little heavier and more widespread Thursday evening. Moisture surging into the area will keep temperatures from dropping much with lows in the low to mid-50s. The increasing moisture will also likely lead to some fog, especially south of the interstate.
Showers or drizzle will continue into Friday morning along with some fog. The coverage and intensity of showers will pick up by Friday afternoon with some rumbles of thunder possible. Enough instability will be in play coupled with higher wind energy to trigger a risk for isolated severe storms Friday afternoon. The risk of severe weather will pick up Friday night as a well-defined line of storms takes shape and slowly shifts east across the Ozarks. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible along with some small hail in the stronger storms.
The atmosphere will also be loaded with moisture with thunderstorms squeezing that moisture out as heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for Friday through Friday night with a general 2 to 4″ expected. A frontal boundary initially stalled near I-44 could serve as a focus for even higher totals Friday evening near the interstate and locally higher rain amounts near 6″ are possible. Some flash flooding appears likely Friday night.
The stormy weather will be slow to clear our area, possibly not moving out of our eastern counties until well after midnight.
Cold air surging in behind the departing storm will cause temperatures to tumble through the 30s Saturday morning and likely below freezing and into the 20s by later in the day. The upper-level core of the storm will move through during the day Saturday likely generating another wave of precipitation that will start as a wintry mix before transitioning to light snow. The risk of light accumulations of wintry weather will tend to stay confined to areas near and north of a Jasper, AR, to Eminence, MO, line. Slick roads could become an issue in those areas by afternoon. The heavier stripe of snow is currently expected to be across Eastern Kansas into Northern Missouri, or just northwest of the Ozarks.
A chilly day will follow on Sunday with a cold morning giving way to a chilly day, especially in areas where there’s some snow cover.
Milder weather returns for the first half of next week with highs back in the 50s. The pattern looks pretty quiet through that stretch as well.