Tuesday dawned bright and comfortably cool after a couple of waves of wet weather on Monday. Bright conditions pushed temperatures well into the 80s this afternoon, but we managed to keep humidity levels comfortable. This was our dry day with the pattern taking a turn toward clouds and rain later this week.
The first wave of clouds and rain dropping into the Ozarks this evening will fade away before arriving thanks to a dry air mass over the area. Temperatures will fall into the 60s under mostly clear skies.
Wednesday looks like our transition day into a wet mode as the atmosphere continues to moisten back up. There will be a wave of clouds and showers that will erupt over Northwest Missouri tonight, that will drop southeast into parts of the area Wednesday. The rain gradually fades as it moves into the Ozarks, but it should hold together long enough to provide a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially east of a Nevada, MO, to Harrison, AR, line. This will also temper the heat a bit over the Eastern Ozarks where highs will be in the low to mid-80s. Upper 80s will be common over the southwest corner of Missouri into Northwest Arkansas where the sunshine will outweigh cloud cover.
The pattern looks wet at times Thursday through Saturday, and the threat of some flooding is there too. The Ozarks will lie within a corridor of active weather that will extend from Nebraska southeast into Arkansas. The summer ridge in the Western U.S. will force pockets of rain and thunder south across the Ozarks on a daily basis Thursday through Saturday. The rain and thunder will tend to be more likely overnight through the morning hours with the rain fading during the afternoon into the early evening. There will likely be an axis of heavy rainfall each day, and that will shift from day to day. Over the three day period, it looks like the heaviest rainfall amounts will fall along a line from Kansas City, MO, south to Branson, MO. Flooding will be a risk each day. Rainfall amounts will likely exceed several inches in places.
By Saturday afternoon, drier air will begin to edge in from the east. This will lead to a nice stretch of weather Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will trend hot again by Tuesday.