The hot pattern is finally beginning to loosen its grasp on the area. No record highs today, but still very hot for late September when average highs are in the upper 70s. The transition to cooler weather is more a result of clouds and increased rain chances than an actual cold front, although we may get some relief there too by Monday.
For tonight, we’ll have mostly clear skies. The outer fringes of the pocket of moisture associated with the remnants of “Imelda” could generate a few isolated showers overnight to the south.
Rain chances will be on the way up Friday. We’ll start with a mix of sun and clouds, but clouds will thicken with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading north into the area during the afternoon. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs ranging from near 80° to the south to mid to upper 80s closer to Central Missouri.
This pocket of tropical moisture will linger into Saturday morning before moving out, giving us a shot at a few showers and thunderstorms overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. Rain chances will come down by Saturday afternoon, but a few showers will remain possible. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid-80s.
Saturday night will remain pretty quiet, but showers and thunderstorms will increase along a cold front to the west. This wave of rain and thunder will spread into areas north of I-44 Sunday morning, shifting southeast across the remainder of the area by Sunday afternoon. Rain amounts will be heavier with this round of rain with totals of a half an inch to an inch and a half expected. Locally higher amounts are possible. We’ll also have to keep an eye on severe weather chances. Instability levels look pretty low right now, but there will be a fair amount of wind energy that could contribute to some strong wind gusts. Temperatures should remain pretty mild, especially in areas where the rain arrives earlier in the day. Highs will be in the 70s north of the interstate and in the 80s to the south.
It looks like the cold front will get enough of a push to move through the Ozarks by Monday morning. This will usher in lower humidity and cooler morning lows that could dip into the 50s to the north. Low to mid-60s can be expected to the south.
Monday is now shaping up to be a really nice day with low humidity, sunshine and highs in the low 80s.
Showers will spread back into the Ozarks from the southwest Tuesday, likely keeping highs in the 70s.
The front will slip north of the area by Wednesday with another front approaching from the northwest by Thursday. The overall pattern is one that will keep at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms going through Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures and humidity levels will run higher with afternoon highs back in the low to mid-80s.
The pattern looks like it may shift back into a hotter mode over the last weekend of the month. The summer ridge will try to expand back to the northwest into the middle of the country as a trough redevelops in the West. This will mean a return to late summer conditions with higher humidity and afternoon highs that may get close to 90° again. The pattern will remain warm into early October.