A burst of heat that developed on Sunday is already getting forced back out of the area thanks to a front that is making slow progress through the Ozarks. The front led to a big range in high temperatures Monday afternoon, ranging from the low 80s near Rolla, MO, to 100° in Joplin. The front served as a focus for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening.
Later tonight, a new area of rain and thunderstorm activity will develop from Kansas City southeast into Southeast Missouri by sunrise. Locally, the focus for rain will generally be north and east of Springfield, although a few showers may move into the Springfield area Tuesday morning.
The rain-cooled air will likely reinforce the cool front and nudge it a bit further west and south. This will lead to most of the area being on the cooler side of the front. Afternoon temperatures will range from near 70° in Rolla to 90s in Eureka Springs. The exact placement of the front will also be key to where a few severe storms may develop by late afternoon. Currently, it looks like a corridor from Joplin southeast through Harrison has the highest risk. Damaging wind gusts and spotty hail are possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly near and south of Hwy. 54. Showers will shift south of the area Wednesday with clouds thinning from the north Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures Wednesday will be mild, ranging from low 80s north to 70s south.
A mild air mass will continue to blow into the area through Thursday. Thursday looks bright with a comfy cool morning giving way to a comfortably warm afternoon.
The overall pattern will remain a little cooler than normal through the weekend with the trough positioned over the Eastern U.S. There will be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms over the weekend as a storm passes by to the north. The higher chances for rain look like they’ll be centered around Sunday. Rain chances will shift south of most of the area by Monday.
The long-range pattern favors more of a trough over the Eastern U.S. This will keep excessively hot weather mostly at bay with temperatures generally running near to below normal through the end of the month.