HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS
The break from wet weather will be brief this evening with another round of rain and thunderstorms moving in late this evening and early Thursday morning. Scattered strong to severe storms developing over Kansas and Oklahoma will merge into a storm complex that will spill east into our area late tonight. Storms will be spreading into Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas by late evening and early Thursday morning.
There will be a limited threat of severe weather with the storms as they move across areas near and south of the state line, mainly across Northwest Arkansas. Locally damaging winds and hail up to quarter size look possible.
The rain will also be an issue with much of the area picking up 1 to 2″ of rain through Thursday morning. Areas north of the interstate could be hit hardest with totals approaching 4″. This will lead to flooding and even the risk of flash flooding Thursday morning.
Another wave of scattered thunderstorms is expected to move in with the cold front late in the afternoon and evening Thursday. The big question is what kind of environment will be in place for storms after the morning round of wet weather. IF enough instability can develop, wind fields look sufficient to organize thunderstorms. Large hail to golf ball size looks to be the main mode, but isolated tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible too. The severe threat will exit off to the east by late evening.
COOL AND CLOUDY FINISH
Additional showers will wrap into the area by Friday morning behind the departing storm. Skies will remain cloudy into the afternoon with a few sprinkles possible. This and the cool temperatures will make for a gloomy finish to the week. We may manage to wrap up the day with peeks of sun, especially south of Hwy. 60.
Clouds will clear out Friday night setting the stage for a beautiful weekend. Saturday will have a fresh feel with breezy winds and highs in the 70s. Mother’s Day is looking warmer. We’ll still enjoy sunny skies, but temperatures and humidity levels will be on the way up. Winds will pick up too with gusts over 30 mph. Afternoon highs will be well into the 80s.
Even hotter weather is in store next week as an unusual pattern sets up across the nation. A trough moving into the West combined with a storm peeling back toward the Southeast will lead to a ridge over the middle of the country. The pattern looks generally quiet through at least Tuesday with a strong cap in place. Overnight and daytime temperatures will have a summer feel. Afternoon highs will be near 90° with some record highs in jeopardy. There’s a signal that the ridge may weaken a bit by the middle of the week which may open the door for a chance for rain. The unusually warm pattern will stick around into the following weekend.