Temperatures heated up a little today thanks to bright afternoon skies. Afternoon highs were back up to near-normal levels with a high near 90° in Springfield. Evening weather looks clear and quiet ahead of an active day Wednesday. An unusually potent mix of ingredients for August will be in place leading to heavy rain and scattered severe storms.
A storm moving out of the Rockies will meet up with a warm and humid air mass moving north into the area by sunrise. Scattered storms will likely break out across parts of Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas with a complex of rain and thunderstorms moving in from the west. This will be the first of two main waves of storms Wednesday.
The complex of rain and thunderstorms moving in from Kansas will spread east through the area during the morning and may surge southeast across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas along the incoming warm front. IF this happens damaging winds would be likely, especially as temperatures climb ahead of the line through late morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon in the wake of the morning wave, but they’ll be more patchy in nature. Skies may remain rather cloudy too and this will help keep temperatures mild into the afternoon hours.
The second wave of strong to severe storms will erupt near the rain-reinforced boundary. Where that will be is the big question. Currently, it looks like it may stretch from north of Benton, AR, to north of Memphis, TN. Near that front, there will likely be a potent combination of instability and wind energy that will result in storms quickly becoming severe early Wednesday evening. Storms will initially be capable of producing all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. The storms will quickly merge together into a line that will then surge southeast with primarily a risk of damaging winds. This will likely happen southeast of our area.
Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern Wednesday with some areas potentially picking up several inches of rainfall leading to a risk of flash flooding.
Thunderstorms should exit the area after midnight Wednesday and we’ll be dry to start the day Thursday. Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies and mild afternoon highs in the 80s.
The pattern looks warm and humid Friday through Sunday. An active storm track over the region will keep the threat of rain and thunderstorms nearby. The likelihood for rain and thunderstorms appears to be highest in the overnight to morning timeframe Friday night through Sunday night.
Another cold front will push through Sunday night ushering quiet and mild August weather into the area for early next week.