Sunny, warm, and humid today, another severe threat tonight —
Our potent front from yesterday has shifted southeast with the low swirling to our north. Dry air is filling in behind with mostly clear skies this morning.
We’ll keep mostly sunny skies and steady south winds today. Highs warm quick into the low to middle 80’s with increasing dew points. Dew points surge from the 50’s into the lower 60’s by the end of the day.
This robust warm and humid air mass coupled with low-level, turning winds in the atmosphere will set the stage for a severe threat tonight. Our warm front lifts back into the Ozarks, sitting northwest of I-44. Coupled with the warm, humid, unstable air, and low-level winds, severe storms are expected.
Storms fire up to the northwest by 7 PM this evening. They hover the front northwest through the overnight, only making it as far south as Springfield.
We carry another Enhanced Risk of severe weather this evening and overnight to the NW along the front. There, damaging winds to 70 mph, tennis ball size hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. The National Weather Service is warning for the possibility of a strong tornado or two — that’s how favorable tornado conditions will be tonight.
Flash flooding is also likely in an area that already got 3-6″ of rain the last two days. FLASH FLOOD WATCH goes through 10 AM Thursday.
Storms dissipate and lift out of the area by sunrise with quiet weather expected Thursday afternoon. An isolated shower/ storm will be possible to the north. Highs in the 80’s again.
Isolated storm risk to the north again on Friday with a healthier chance of storms through the Memorial Day Weekend.