Wednesday, May 15 Overnight Forecast

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We enjoyed a little taste of summer with temperatures soaring into the low to mid-80s across the Ozarks.  The warmth came with a touch of humidity as well.  The day as a whole was quiet, but a few storms popped up across Southeast Missouri and Northeast Arkansas, producing heavy rainfall and some hail.

Heading into the overnight, well find starry skies and mild temperatures.  Morning lows will be in the low to mid-60s.

A couple of very warm days will follow.  The jet stream pattern will feature a ridge of high pressure over the midsection of the country.  This will keep the Ozarks warm and dry with the storm track remaining well north of the area.  Skies will be sunny and winds will be breezy out of the southwest.  Afternoon temperatures will be some of the warmest we’ve seen so far this year with mid to upper 80s common.

The ridge will shift into the Eastern U.S. by Saturday with a trough moving into the Western U.S.  This will lead to an active period of weather from this weekend into next week.  Two potent storms will sweep through the trough, lifting northeast across the middle of the country.  This is a classic setup for severe weather.  There should be two main waves of stormy weather with the first arriving Saturday.

Saturday will be warm and breezy with a risk for showers during the morning.  I’m not expecting any severe weather with that activity.  Instability will build during the day along with the wind energy in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon and evening, and some severe weather is likely.  All modes of severe weather look possible.  The storms should sweep out of the area late Saturday night.  Rainfall could be heavy with an inch of rain likely, locally higher totals are possible.

A quiet day will follow Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

Much of Monday looks quiet, but a front will be shifting north through the Ozarks.  This could lead to some shower and thunderstorm activity, especially Monday night and severe weather can’t be ruled out.

Severe weather looks more likely Tuesday as another potent storm lifts northeast across the middle of the country.  Once again strong to severe storms are expected to develop and move through Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.  All modes of severe weather are again possible and heavy rain could lead to the risk of some flooding.

The wave of storms should push east of the area by Wednesday with quiet weather following.

The trough in the Western U.S. looks like it will pull back a bit with the storm track shifting further northwest.  This should lead to a stretch of quieter weather into the following weekend.

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