Active weather is back on the table as a storm in the Western U.S. finally heads east. For tonight, we’ll find fairly quiet conditions into the evening. We’ll be keeping an eye on storms to the west over Kansas and Oklahoma. At this time, it’s questionable how much of that activity will make it into the Ozarks. A cap should remain in place into the evening hours before eroding away late tonight. A low-level jet will crank up this evening, helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms. The coverage of storms looks like it may be rather spotty, but given the wind energy available to organize storms, severe weather would be possible. Summing it up, much of the evening looks quiet. Storms are possible late tonight, but they may be rather spotty, and the severe weather risk will be on the isolated side.
Wednesday will be a different story. Storms are expected, especially Wednesday afternoon into the overnight. Wind energy will be a bit on the weak side during the day but will increase heading into the evening especially south of I-44. This is where the greatest chance for all modes of severe will come together. Hail looks more likely initially given the high levels of instability that may be in place. By late evening the severe threat will likely be winding down, but the flash flooding threat will continue as additional storms redevelop over much of the area. The rain will likely be heaviest along and south of I-44 where 2 to 4″ of rainfall is expected. Locally higher amounts are possible. The heavy rain following a soggy month of May will quickly evolve into flash flooding in places. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas near and south of I-44 through 7am Thursday.
The stormy weather Wednesday evening will mark a shift in the pattern. The trough that’s persisted in the West for so long will finally move into the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. This shift in the pattern will push a cold front across the Ozarks Wednesday night, ushering in milder and less humid conditions for Thursday and Friday. And the weather will be quiet.
Looking ahead to the weekend, moisture returns to the Ozarks. Temperatures will be warmer too. There will be a chance for at least spotty showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis into next week, but little or no severe weather is expected. Rainfall could be locally heavy, but the spotty nature of the rain should keep any flooding more isolated in nature.