Tuesday, May 21 Overnight Forecast

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Two days of active weather have left the area waterlogged and with storm damage to clean up.  Today’s severe weather ramped up shortly afternoon as a squall line intensified near Hwy. 65 before moving east.  Several unconfirmed tornadoes occurred with the line with one of the tornadoes near Marshfield confirmed this evening by the Springfield NWS Office.  They found evidence of an EF-1 tornado that touched down near Wild Animal Safari, tracking northeast before lifting 1.5 miles west of Marshfield.  In addition to tornadoes, the storms produced another round of very heavy rainfall.  Two-day totals in Springfield are between 3 and 4″ with even higher amounts in many spots near and north of the interstate.

The storms blew through by early evening with clear and cool conditions in their wake.  The rest of the night looks clear with temperatures falling into the mid-50s.

Wednesday will start sunny and cool with temperatures warming quickly under sunny skies.  The front that cleared out the storms will lift back to the north during the day, ushering humidity back into the Ozarks.  The heat and humidity will be noticeable during the afternoon and will set the stage for active weather in parts of the Ozarks Wednesday night.

A weak upper-level storm will interact with the warm front, triggering a few storms over Northeast Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas.  The storms will be fueled by high instability, organizing into severe storms that will eventually find their way into parts of Southwest and Central Missouri Wednesday evening.  The mode of severe weather looks like hail and damaging winds, but a tornado or two looks possible with storms that develop across Southeast Kansas early in the evening.

The storms will increase in coverage across Central Missouri late in the evening, gradually sagging south down to about Hwy. 60 before sunrise Thursday.

A ridge in the Southeast will build northwest, pushing the storm track further north.  This will make for warm and mostly dry weather across the Ozarks Thursday and Friday.  The ridge will relax a bit over the holiday weekend allowing the storm track to shift back to the south, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area near and north of the state line.  It certainly won’t be a washout over the weekend, but the risk of storms will be there along with the risk for some isolated severe weather.  Conditions will remain warm and humid.

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