We’re starting out warm and humid with lows in the 70’s. We’ll stay hot and humid today ahead of a cold front, expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 90’s feeling close to 100 degrees.
As the front comes through today, a few showers/ storms will be possibles, especially over the eastern Ozarks where forcing from the front will be healthiest. While storms will be unorganized and no severe weather is expected, locally heavy rain and lightning are possible with any storms that pop.
Tonight should be quiet with partly cloudy skies and warm lows around 70 degrees.
Our front then stalls, stuck sitting on top of an area of high pressure centered over Texas.
By sunrise, a storm complex could arrive from the north bringing showers/ storms. This complex could leave smaller boundaries that allow for redeveloping storms in the afternoon. Any storms that pop tomorrow afternoon will be widely scattered, highs up around 90 degrees again will feel even hotter.
Our front continues to stall through the rest of the week and into part of the weekend, carving out a highway for weak upper-level disturbances, fueling rounds of showers/ storms. These storms will be in waves, but likely track over the same path near the front through Saturday.
This will set the stage for heavy rain since the atmosphere will be soaked and storms will heavy rain will likely hit the same places more than once. Like last week, rain totals will depend heavily on where the front eventually winds up setting up and stalling. For now, it looks like a good swath of 1-4″+ rain is possible, but again we still need to fine-tune where the heaviest totals are possible.
With the front, clouds, and showers in place, highs will be a hair below average Thursday through Saturday in the middle 80’s.
By Sunday it looks like the front shakes a bit, drying us out with fewer storms and more sunshine. Highs rebound to near 90 degrees. Storm chances could return Monday.