Thursday, May 16 Overnight Forecast

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Tough to beat the weather we were able to enjoy today, and it’s even tougher staying inside when it’s so nice.  Fortune will continue to smile on us for one more day before the pattern turns stormy.

For tonight, we’ll have starry skies and balmy breezes.  Temperatures will slip into the low to mid-60s for morning lows.

Friday looks like a near carbon copy of today with a couple of subtle differences.  It looks like there will be a bit more high cloudiness and temperatures will be a degree or two cooler.  But that still means sunshine and high in the mid-80s.

The pattern shift will be underway on Friday with a trough setting up in the Western U.S.  This will lead to an active period of weather for the midsection of the country into the foreseeable future.  Locally, we’ll have at least two rounds of strong to severe storms to contend with over the next week.

The first wave will come Saturday.  We’ll have a chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms by sunrise Saturday, but it doesn’t look to be overly widespread.  Showers and thunderstorms will build to our west and southwest by the afternoon, sweeping northeast across the area Saturday afternoon into the evening.  Right now, the setup looks like one that will produce some severe weather, but the ultimate mode will likely become more of a squall line that will have surges that bow northeast.  This will lead to a damaging wind risk along with the risk for a few isolated tornadoes.  Hail also is possible, especially early on, but it shouldn’t be overly widespread.  Rainfall will tend to be around an inch, with locally higher amounts likely.

Quiet weather returns Sunday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s.

Monday will start clear and cool with morning lows in the 50s.  Skies will become partly cloudy by early evening with a risk for showers and thunderstorms overnight, mainly north and west.  There could be a few severe storms with this activity.  Right now it looks like mainly a hail threat if the storms materialize.  Temperatures on Monday will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Another round of active weather will follow.  Another potent storm will lift northeast across the midsection of the country.  A dry line will move in from the west by afternoon triggering at least widely scattered thunderstorms.  This storm may pack more of a punch than Saturday’s round of storms.  Wind energy will be higher and the overall look of the storm suggests that the severe threat will be higher.  The risk for storms should end quickly Tuesday evening.

Generally quiet weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday looks mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s after a comfortable morning.  The frontal boundary will lift north into Northern Missouri by Thursday.  This won’t be a completely clean set up, but much of the area looks warm and quiet Thursday into the following weekend.  There may be a risk for occasional storms across Central Missouri.

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