We enjoyed a warm and DRY day across the Ozarks. The break from the rain will be short-lived, at least in parts of the Ozarks. Warm and quiet weather is expected through most of the night, but we’ll need to keep an eye on storms moving east along I-70 overnight. These storms will likely move into the Kansas City area before sunrise before making more of a turn to the southeast. The storms will tend to surge southeast along a frontal boundary that will be draped from Kansas City to West Plains Friday morning. Strong winds will be possible with the line of storms along with a threat for some hail in the strongest storms. Storms will be most likely near and north of a Stockton, MO, to Eminence, MO, line. Outflow driven showers could make it as far as Southwest and South Central Missouri during the morning.
The boundary will then begin edging northeast during the afternoon. This will put much of the area in a hot and humid air mass. Temperatures across Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas will warm into the low 90s. Temperatures will remain cooler to the northeast where morning storms move through. Highs there will be in the 80s, and there will be a lingering chance for a shower or thunderstorm there into the afternoon.
The hot and humid air mass will envelop all of the Ozarks Friday night into Saturday. A cap will keep storms away in most areas through Saturday, but there may be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across Central Missouri late Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows Friday night will be in the 70s with highs around 90° on Saturday.
The hot pattern will give way to a stormier pattern again Saturday night through Monday morning. A trough in the West will edge into the mid-section of the country. The cap that will keep things pretty quiet Friday afternoon into Saturday will give way and a series of upper-level storms will move through. This will lead to waves of rain and thunder that will tend to focus around the late night into the morning timeframe. Strong winds look possible with these waves of storms. A general 1 to 2″ of rain looks possible, with locally higher amounts through the period.
Drier weather will develop heading into Monday evening, continuing through at least Tuesday. After cooler highs in the low 80s Sunday and Monday, temperatures will head higher again on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look hot and humid with isolated storms possible.