The weather was mild and quiet today, but the calm won’t last long. Another round of active weather will get underway by Monday evening, continuing through Tuesday.
Monday looks quiet across most of the Ozarks, but there will be an increasing threat for stormy weather to the west during the afternoon. Stable air will blanket most of the Ozarks, but a warm front lifting north across Northwest Arkansas into the southwest corner of Missouri will bring instability back into those areas during the afternoon. The warm front is then forecast to lift north up I-49 Monday night. This will keep the severe weather threat generally confined to areas west of Hwy. 65 through Monday night. North of Joplin, MO, it looks like the storms will remain “elevated in nature” and pose mainly a hail risk. Further south, storms will have access to better instability and will have a greater capacity of producing all modes of severe weather. This threat area looks like it may tend to be near and south of a Joplin, MO, to Harrison, AR, line.
It looks like the day may go something like this: The morning will start mostly clear and cool. Temperatures will warm into the 70s during the afternoon with clouds increasing from the west.
Scattered strong to severe storms will break out over Northern Oklahoma. These storms may develop into a large area of thunderstorm activity that will build east along the warm front Monday afternoon. This could lead to a damaging wind threat as the storms surge east along the warm front into Southwest Missouri during the afternoon into the evening. Hail and isolated tornadoes would be possible in the stronger storms that will likely develop along the southern edge of this complex of storms. Heavy rain and the risk for flooding will be a concern too. The storms will tend to weaken as they push east across areas near and north of the state line Monday evening. The focus for storms will shift north into Central and Northern Missouri late Monday night with areas to the south turning quiet again.
The lull will be short-lived with another wave of severe weather possible Tuesday from about noon through the afternoon. This round of storms looks very similar to Saturday’s round with a squall line pushing east across the Ozarks generating the risk for damaging wind. Some hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
Quiet weather returns Wednesday and Thursday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Southeast. Temperatures will become very warm again with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid 80s. The pattern into the holiday weekend won’t be free of stormy weather as the northwest edge of the ridge in the Southeast begins to break down. This will allow the storm track to trend a bit further southeast leading to a threat for some stormy weather at times from Friday through the weekend.