Monday, May 13 Overnight Forecast

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We kicked off the week with gorgeous weather.  The day started with some morning fog, but sunshine won the day, pushing temperatures into the 60s to low 70s.  Temperatures have been running cool since the middle of last week, but warm and humid weather returns this week.

The pattern features a trough in the Eastern U.S.  We would typically be in a pretty quiet place in the jet stream pattern, but as temperatures warm and humidity is more readily available, you have to watch these “northwest flow” scenarios.  Over the next couple of days, a frontal boundary will edge northeast across the Ozarks.  This will bring warm and humid weather back to the area, and it will also serve as a focus for some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Wednesday.  Weak upper-level storms tracking southeast will trigger spotty storms.  Higher instability levels and just enough wind energy will possibly lead to a few isolated severe storms over the next couple of days.  Hail would be the primary risk from this activity and many locations won’t see storms at all either day.  The storms will tend to favor areas north and east of Springfield.  Temperatures will be edging higher along with humidity levels.

A building ridge upstairs in the jet stream pattern will lead to warm and quiet weather Thursday and Friday.  Morning lows in the 60s and highs in the low to mid-80s will make for an early summer feel.

A trough in the jet stream will build into the Western U.S.  This is often a precursor to stormier weather over the midsection of the country and the risk is certainly there for more active weather over the weekend.  It looks like we’ll get through much of Saturday with quiet weather, but storms will likely increase from the west by Saturday night.  There could be some severe weather, so it’s something to watch.  Showers and thunderstorms will edge east through the area Sunday with the higher rain chances likely focused in the area during the early part of the day.  Temperatures over the weekend will remain warm, but they will be tempered by clouds.

A front should surge north through the area by Monday, putting most of the area south of the front.  This will bring warm and quiet weather back to much of the region.  More active weather is possible as we slip into Tuesday.

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