Beautiful day today, storm threat late on Saturday —

We’re starting out pleasant this morning with sunshine and lows in the 60’s.

It will be beautiful this afternoon! Mostly sunny skies with highs warmer than yesterday but still not humid! Highs get into the lower 80’s, but dew points stay in the upper 50’s — having it feel warm and nice!

Tonight will be pleasant again, mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 50’s, lower 60’s.

Tomorrow we’ll be dry most of the afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds and warm low to middle 80’s. A front dives south into the Ozarks late, with showers/ storms arriving after 4 PM. I expect that line to be near Springfield, parallel to I-44 by 7 PM. Storms continue to push south overnight, clearing by midnight.

With these storms, there is a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-44. There, hail to the size of golf balls is possible. If these storms organize into a line as they dive south, damaging winds to 60 mph will also be a threat. Any heavy rain will aggravate current flood conditions, localized flash flooding is a concern.

By Sunday morning we’ll be dry with lows in the 60’s. Sunday afternoon will be nice again, a bit cooler behind the front with highs in the upper 70’s.

Starting on Monday we set up a pattern where the jet stream sits over the Ozarks, driving multiple weak disturbances through the area. However, with a NW flow, this is not conducive to an organized severe threat. The pattern looks active and unsettled, but not necessarily severe. However, if storms roll over the same places, flooding will be a concern given how high the water table is now.

Highs stay near average through the beginning of the week, highs in the lower 80’s, lows in the 60’s.