The pattern remains an active one despite today's break from the rain. A trough remains across the mid section of the country, and this will keep a steady stream of weak disturbances moving across the region. An old frontal boundary will be another ingredient helping to keep rain chances in the area the next few days. Initially the air mass will be fairly dry and stable, and this will make it tough for rain to move into the area tonight into Wednesday morning. Moisture levels will be on the increase Wednesday, and with upper level energy moving through, at least a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday. It looks like a final piece of upper level energy will move through on Saturday producing at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pattern that follows will be a drier one and hotter one.
The jet stream pattern Sunday and Monday will feature a trough redeveloping in the Western U.S. This will allow a little more ridging to take hold across the Ozarks. The storm track will also be shifting further north. Both days appear mostly dry with afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s to around 90°.
A front may try to drop into the area on Tuesday as a trough passes by to the north. Current model trends are leaning against this idea, and if that holds that will mean another mainly dry and hot day across the area.
The long range pattern after the 4th could be a hotter and drier one. A couple of the long range models are hinting at this as they generate more of a ridge across the middle of the country. This would shift the storm track well north of the area, and lead to hotter temperatures. The third model maintains more of a trough across the Eastern U.S. This pattern would be similar to what we've seen with rain possible at times and temperatures close to normal. Time will tell.
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