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How Accurate Is Farmers' Almanac Prediction of Cold Winter?

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. -- In the middle of this summer heat, people are buzzing about a possible colder than normal winter. The Farmers' Almanac shows "shivery" days returning.
I think it sounds totally ridiculous!
SPRINGFIELD, Mo. -- In the middle of this summer heat, people are buzzing about a possible colder than normal winter. The Farmers' Almanac shows "shivery" days returning.

Before you all go buy new down jackets and boots, we wanted to take a closer look at that prediction.

On a gorgeous warm day in Close Park, it's hard to think about winter on the way.

"It makes me sad, I love to run outside," Morgan Kennel said.

The Farmers' Almanac Winter 2014, just released, shows upcoming "piercing cold" and "frosty" temps for our region.

Among folks at the park, the prediction has mixed reviews.

"I'm hoping for a cold winter, I'd love that," one woman said.

"I think it sounds totally ridiculous," one man said.

So do the forecasting experts at the National Weather Service.

Science and Operations Officer David Gaede said their forecast for the winter is the opposite as the almanac's.

"The weather looks right now to be above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation," he said.

So let's see how accurate last year's Farmers' Almanac winter outlook was compared to the temperatures actually recorded.

Last winter they predicted a wet and chilly winter for the entire southern region and what actually ended up happening were above normal temperature readings for this whole area.

So if the National Weather Service is right, Morgan Kennel can keep running outside when fall comes to a close.

"I'd be happier because I feel like you could enjoy the outdoors a little bit longer and do more stuff with your family and friends," Kennel said.

But if the almanac's prediction comes true, she will have to hang up those sneakers until spring.

The Farmers' Almanac bases its predictions on planetary positions, sunspots, and lunar cycles.

The National Weather Service uses scientific forecasting models based on previous temperatures.
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