Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible through Thursday across southwest Missouri. The front that generated showers last night has stalled just south of I-44 this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the area under a slight risk for severe weather today and a slight to moderate risk Wednesday. These will be the two main windows for severe weather in the Ozarks.
I think today's will develop this evening. My thinking is that much of the activity will actually develop on the cool side of the front, meaning it will be elevated. Hail will be the main threat from these storms.
Anything south of the front could produce all modes of severe weather, but it will be tough to get activity to fire. A cap will be in place preventing thunderstorm activity from developing, and there isn't a strong source of lift moving through.
The activity north of the front may develop into a storm complex that shifts east through Tuesday morning. Outflow from this could push south into the warm sector and help break the cap. These storms tonight will wind down Tuesday morning.
Much of the time from Tuesday afternoon through much of Wednesday looks quiet.
Wednesday evening the next round of storms will be possible as a front pushes in from the west. All modes of severe weather will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning before the front/outflow pushes east of the Ozarks.
There is a chance that a sliver of the Eastern Ozarks could see severe weather Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will fall this week with many locations seeing another 1 to 3" of rainfall.
Colder weather will move in behind this storm with temperatures near freezing possible Friday and Saturday mornings.